A 99-year agreement on the Zangezur Corridor, signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan under United States mediation and referred to as the “Trump International Corridor,” has opened the door to a new era in the Trans-Caucasus region. By granting the corridor’s infrastructure services to American companies, the United States aims to establish a foothold in the region, while regional actors such as Russia, Iran, and China have reacted in different ways to the development.
International politics expert Toros Korkmaz stated that the agreement carries critical importance for both regional balances and the struggle for hegemony among major powers.
Korkmaz said that the United States’ involvement in the Zangezur Corridor and the decision to hand its infrastructure services to American companies is not merely a technical step, but a strong indication of a new struggle for dominance in the Caucasus.
Korkmaz said, “America wants to take an active role in Caucasus policy. The Trans-Caucasus region, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, had long been under Russian influence. The United States taking over the operation and infrastructure of this corridor means directly initiating a hegemonic rivalry with Russia. This move is not only about the region itself; it is also an effort to gain influence in the former Soviet republics extending into Central Asia.”
Political turbulence risk in Armenia
Korkmaz noted that Russia’s reaction to the United States entering the region would be inevitable, and that this would likely have a direct impact on Armenia’s domestic politics.
He said, “Prime Minister Pashinyan’s government signed this agreement to strengthen ties with the West. However, the opposition in the country argues that angering Russia should be avoided. Pashinyan’s turn toward the West distances Armenia from its traditional allies, Russia and Iran.”
He also underlined that Armenia has long been considered a “patented” country of Russia. Korkmaz warned, “Pashinyan is trying to break away from traditional dependence, but this will not be easy. Russia may take steps to weaken Pashinyan’s administration.”
A setback to China’s ‘Belt and Road’ project
Korkmaz pointed out that the Zangezur Corridor is a critical knot in the competition between global powers.
He said, “The United States, through this corridor, aims to draw Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey to its side. At the same time, this will present a long-term obstacle to China’s Belt and Road project. Control of the corridor will determine the balance of power between the United States, Russia, and China. While the U.S. entry into the region will weaken Russia’s influence, China’s regional presence will also be harmed. However, Russia and Iran will not stand idly by; they will develop countermeasures.”
A complex victory for Turkey
In Turkey’s view, the opening of the corridor is regarded as a significant gain in the context of the “Turkic world.” Korkmaz cautioned, however, that this advantage carries long-term risks.
He said, “Without a direct land connection between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan, Turkey will, through this corridor, establish a road link with Azerbaijan and the Turkic republics of Central Asia. For Turkish nationalists, this is a major victory. However, the reactions of Russia and Iran could strain Turkey’s relations with these countries. While it may appear beneficial in the short term, geopolitical tensions could rise in the medium term.”
The region’s future in the long term
Korkmaz noted that Armenia has not handed the corridor itself over to the United States, but only the infrastructure services. He said, “Armenia wants to break free from its regional isolation and end Russian hegemony by moving closer to the West. However, with the United States’ lasting presence, the balance of power in the region could be completely transformed. The century-long era of Russian dominance is nearing its end. This will also affect regional actors such as China and Iran, pushing them to develop new strategies. Yet the risk of conflict in the region remains high. Russia will likely take strong countermeasures to maintain its influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Regional stability and peace are now more fragile than ever.”
Source: ANF News
